Peak Car Ownership: Is a Transportation Revolution Just Around the Corner?
Researchers at the Rocky Mountain Institute say in a detailed study that private car ownership will hit its peak by 2020. If these researchers are correct, it could spell the beginning of a new energy and technological revolution – if, and only if, companies prepare for such an event by researching automated personal mobility powered by electric powertrains. Thankfully, as the study points out, companies such as Lyft and Uber are already exploring self-driving robot taxis, as well as Apple, Google, and Tesla. In a few years, then, as the study claims, these companies will absolutely produce a new mobility system that is superior to our existing system. But what effects will this emerging mobility system have on the energy sector?
The study’s authors, Charlie Johnson and Jonathan Walker, say that “this future system has the potential to reduce costs by over $1 trillion, reduce CO2 emissions by a gigaton, and save tens of thousands of lives per year in the U.S. alone.” When people stop buying their own vehicles and begin using a city’s autonomous, electrically-powered taxi system, there will be a major decrease in gasoline demand, as the study suggests.
For many, though, it’s not about if the transition will happen (because there are few who doubt it), it’s all about when the transition will happen. Many are less optimistic about the Rocky Mountain Institute’s projections. Margo Oge, a former EPA transportation and air quality official, says that “In the end the overall success of autonomous mobility will be based on public trust. It’s not just an issue of technology. Trust takes time to develop.” By 2020, when the Rocky Mountain Institute projects we will hit peak car ownership, will cities be ready to convert to an entirely shared, automated, and electrified fleet of personal mobility vehicles? Probably not. But there’s still hope!
Walker, of the Rocky Mountain Institute, asserts that “there’s people who say the technology’s not going to be ready, but they’re quoting things like 5 or 10 years, when a year ago, they were quoting 30 years.” Who knows? A transportation revolution could happen sooner than we think. We’re crossing our fingers.